通过使用比传统石油产品碳强度更低的来源生产燃料，美国生物燃料行业完全有能力在减少温室气体排放方面发挥重要作用。 可再生柴油政策推动美国大豆压榨产能激增 。
根据CoBank知识交流中心的一份新报告，最近对美国可再生柴油生产能力的投资激增，可能会引发生物燃料行业的一段增长和转型期。
“随着美国和其他主要发达国家将可再生液体运输燃料作为减少温室气体排放的解决方案，生物燃料的前景是有利的，”CoBank首席粮食和农场供应经济学家Kenneth Scott Zuckerberg说。
“鉴于其非凡的增长潜力，可再生柴油为生物燃料领域提供了最诱人的机会。”
主要石油公司现在采用可再生柴油
随着各大石油公司开始采用可再生柴油，美国的产量预计将呈指数级增长。
几个行业利益相关者宣布了过去两年新建大豆压榨和精炼工厂的计划。
大豆油是生产可再生柴油最常用的原料。拟议的压榨和炼油项目加工一起将使美国可再生柴油生产能力到2030年增加六倍，达到每年65亿加仑。
需要更多大豆来满足增长
然而，以豆油为基础的可再生柴油的预期增长需要相当多的数量的大豆用于国内压榨。 可再生柴油政策推动美国大豆压榨产能激增 。
CoBank估计，美国大豆种植面积需要增加1790万英亩，以填补已宣布的额外压榨和炼油项目造成的供应缺口。此外，美国需要停止出口大豆。
大规模种植玉米和大豆的替代方案包括大规模种植油菜籽和葵花籽等其他油料作物，进口其他植物油，或使用牛油等其他原料生产可再生柴油。
政府政策鼓励生物燃料的发展
在过去15年中，生物燃料产量每年增长近8%，这是由税收减免和有针对性的政府项目推动的，包括联邦可再生燃料标准（RFS）计划和加州低碳燃料标准（LCFS）。
2022年的《通货膨胀减少法案》将普遍增加可再生能源的使用，特别是生物燃料的使用。
该法案中针对农业的条款包括近380亿美元的项目和倡议支出，从农业法案、耕地保护和技术援助到可再生能源和生物燃料。还为农村发展和抗旱提供了资金。
可再生柴油不需要对旧发动机进行改装
生物柴油和可再生柴油的碳密集度比传统石油柴油低50%至55%。
虽然可再生柴油和生物柴油具有类似的低碳分数，但可再生柴油作为“廉价”燃料提供了额外的好处。
这意味着它不需要与石油柴油进行额外的混合，而在商业发动机使用生物柴油之前，需要进行额外的混合。作为一种临时燃料，可再生柴油不需要对旧发动机进行任何修改，这是增加采用的一个关键因素。
阅读报告《可再生柴油预计促进生物燃料增长》原文：
Renewable Diesel Projected to Turbo Charge Biofuel Growth
September 2022
Key Points:
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By producing fuel using sources with lower carbon intensity compared to traditional petroleumbased products, the U.S. biofuels sector is well-positioned to play a major role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
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The recently enacted Inflation Reduction Act is expected to boost biofuels by providing tax credits and funding to develop next-generation biofuels, including renewable diesel (RD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
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While electric vehicle (EV) adoption may eventually reduce demand for ethanol – which currently dominates U.S. biofuel production – prices of lithium batteries are surging due to supply shortages. Higher battery prices will likely slow demand for EVs and extend the time frame for mass EV adoption, cushioning the rate at which EVs disintermediate ethanol fuel.
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Driven in part by major oil companies’ embrace of renewable diesel, numerous stakeholders have announced plans for new soybean crush and refinery projects over the past two years. If these projects come to fruition, RD capacity would grow more than six-fold to 6.5 billion gallons per year by 2030.
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The expected growth in soybean oil-based renewable diesel will require considerably more soybean bushels for domestic crush. To satisfy this demand, the U.S. would need to (theoretically) stop exporting whole soybeans while planting 17.9 million additional acres of soybeans (21% larger than the current crop) to satisfy the incremental biofuel demand.
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Besides importing soybeans, the alternatives to shifting massive farm acreage would include growing other types of oilseeds (such as canola and sunflower) at a larger scale, importing other vegetable oils, and/or using other feedstock such as beef tallow to produce renewable diesel fuel.
Introduction
Global consumption of renewable energy has increased in recent years and will continue to do so as governments mandate and businesses and individuals voluntarily shift to less carbon-intensive energy sources. The recently enacted Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 will drive usage of renewable energy in general, and biofuels in particular.
The broader global energy sector is transitioning towards greater renewable fuel usage, and the U.S. biofuels complex will undergo a “micro-transition” featuring several distinct elements:
• Expanded use of fuel ethanol (towards 15% blending levels from 10% currently) serving as the bridge to lower GHG emissions along with increased adoption of electric vehicles;
• Increased renewable diesel (RD) production and usage as a drop-in fuel (no engine modifications or blending limits required) for trucks, heavy duty commercial equipment, oceangoing vessels, and locomotives; and
• Development of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) using alcohol as a feedstock. This report focuses on the current situation and outlook for ethanol, biodiesel, and RD. SAF is still in its infancy and will be addressed in future KED reports. The expected growth in RD is extraordinary, with annual production capacity potentially rising from approximately 1.0 billion gallons today to 6.5 billion gallons by 2030. Should all projects in process and proposed be built, the U.S. will need to vastly increase feedstock.
Sources could include materially increasing soybean production, reducing or stopping whole soybean exports, producing or importing massive quantities of other oilseeds and vegetable oil, and using other products (such as tallow) to provide enough feedstock to meet the demand of the proposed new RD capacity levels.
Biofuel production has grown nearly 8% every year over the past 15 years, driven by tax credits and targeted government programs.
Biofuels are liquid fuels and blending components produced from biomass feed stocks, used mainly as transportation fuels and for some heating and electricity generation. The 8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in production and consumption since 2006 has been buoyed by government policies and programs intended to reduce the use of fossil transportation fuels by incentivizing and/or mandating biofuel usage. The government programs include the federal Renewable Fuel Standard Program and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard. Oregon and Washington have also established their own clean fuel programs and other states may do so in the future. After falling by about 10% in 2020 amidst the pandemic outbreak, biofuel supply and demand began recovering in 2021. Production and consumption for 2022 is expected at 17 billion-18 billion gallons.
Interestingly, the growth of U.S. biofuels has lagged that of two other renewable energy sources: wind and solar. However, the stage is set for that to change.
Total U.S. renewable energy consumption grew at a 3.1% compound annual rate between 2016 and 2021. However, biofuels consumption was flat while solar and wind energy grew at 21.4% and 9.7% respectively. (Consumption of hydroelectric and wood energy each fell by roughly 1.5% during the same period.)
While biofuels consumption fell during the COVID pandemic, the reality is that ethanol, which accounts for the lion’s share of U.S. biofuels production and consumption, had been flat over the past five years as traditional energy companies applied political pressure to hold the ethanol blend wall to 10%.
The landscape is changing, however, as the year-round use of E15 (15% ethanol blended gasoline) and soybean oil-based renewable diesel fuel are expected to grow.
CoBank expects the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 to be a catalyst for biofuels sector growth over the next 10 years.
The new Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 aims to curb spiraling inflation rates and takes square target at energy prices. A key element of the legislation is subsidizing and promoting private sector investment into domestic energy production while encouraging clean energy solutions. The Act provides several tangible benefits for renewable energy in general and biofuels in particular.
Ethanol is the largest of the various types of biofuels, accounting for 86% of total production.
Ethanol is an alcohol fuel using corn as a feedstock and then blended with petroleum gasoline typically at rates of 10% (“E10”) or 15% (“E15”). Approximately 35% of U.S. corn production has historically been used for ethanol production.
Biodiesel, also known as fatty acid methyl ester or FAME, is a biofuel made by processing vegetable oils and other fats for use in a diesel engines. For proper fuel flow and combustion, biodiesel must be blended with petroleum diesel at a rate of 5%-20%.
Renewable diesel, also known as hydro-treated vegetable oil or HVO, is chemically similar to petroleum diesel. Renewable diesel is a cousin of biodiesel but has a key benefit: It does not need to be blended with traditional diesel.
Other biofuels include renewable heating oil, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and other products. While there has been considerable recent press about the future growth of SAF, production at scale is unlikely to occur until 2025 at the earliest.
Ethanol production has recovered from COVID and current profitability is near parity with long-term averages.
Ethanol production has recovered from the initial demand destruction stemming from COVID, with average annualized production running near 16 billion gallons annualized, in line with five-year average levels. The recent steep pullback in gasoline prices at the pump – from peak national average levels of $5.02 on June 14, 2022 to near $3.65 at present – lessens the risk that ethanol will experience a demand shock in the near-term.
Industry profitability is currently running in line with long-term average levels, i.e., pretax operating margins of $0.25 to $0.30/gallon. For the balance of 2022, we see profitability remaining steady for the industry-leading ethanol producers, barring any unhedged spikes in corn feedstock or natural gas costs. We are keeping a close eye on the latter; domestic natural gas prices have been rising as the U.S. exports liquid natural gas to Europe to help offset shortages as Russia withholds supplies
Three recent developments are brightening the short-term outlook for ethanol, though falling energy prices could crimp margins.
First, EPA’s emergency fuel waiver to allow E15 sales has helped lower the retail price of gasoline and boosted overall ethanol demand. Consumer acceptance of E15 is growing, which could lead to all-year-round sales of E15.
Second, Russia’s withholding of critical natural gas supplies from Europe (in response to EU support of Ukraine) is resulting in upward, volatile moves in gas prices, especially in Europe. Russia’s actions underscore the need for the U.S. to maintain diverse sources of energy, including ethanol.
Third, although electric vehicle (EV) sales are increasing – projected to account for about 20% of total new car sales by 2026 – EV battery production will be hampered by skyrocketing elemental lithium prices and ongoing supply chain challenges. This should cushion the rate at which EVs disintermediate ethanol fuel.
Biodiesel and renewable diesel are 50%-55% less carbon-intensive than traditional petroleum diesel. RD also offers some additional benefits.
Crude oil and traditional diesel fuel have the highest carbon intensity scores of 100 and 90, respectively, while renewable diesel and biodiesel are much greener with respective scores of 41 and 38. Although renewable diesel and biodiesel have similarly low carbon scores, RD offers several superior benefits compared to biodiesel.
Because RD is chemically identical to petroleum diesel it can be used as a “drop-in” fuel which means older engines do not require any modifications to tolerate the fuel.
Biodiesel, on the other hand, requires additional blending with petroleum diesel before it can be used by commercial engines. Not having to upgrade existing commercial equipment is a key selling point for increased adoption of renewable diese
RD production is on track to rapidly grow, with numerous greenfield projects and expansions announced since 2020.
RD is undergoing a rapid phase of expansion, largely the result of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard incentives and mandates placed on petroleum refineries under the federal Renewable Fuel Standard. While renewable diesel can be produced using numerous types of vegetable oil, i.e., oil derived from multiple crops such as soybeans, canola and sunflower, soybeans are the primary oilseed available to crush into oil for U.S. production. The reason stems from the availability of soybean acres (87 million were harvested in 2020-21) and existing industry infrastructure. (Canola and sunflower harvested acres totaled just 2.5 million in 2020-21.) based on announcements over the past two years, U.S. renewable diesel capacity will grow to approximately 6.5 billion gallons of annual production by 2030 if all announced and proposed projects are finished and operate at capacity.
Will the U.S. produce enough soybeans for the 6.5 billion gallons of proposed renewable diesel capacity?
To answer this, consider the following: • With about 1.0 billion gallons of RD capacity existing today, we need to produce 5.5 billion additional gallons of RD by 2030.
• 3.4 billion new bushels of soybeans are needed to crush for feedstock to produce those 5.5 billion gallons.
• Even if we retained all soybean exports, projected at 2.5 billion bushels in 2030, we would still be short 927 million bushels.
• Using a future projected yield estimate of 51.9 bushels per acre, meeting the needed production would require 17.9 million more soybean acres.
The analysis shows that 17.9 million new soybean acres would be needed to produce the 927 million bushels of additional soybeans to satisfy the deficit in needed supply and incremental renewable diesel demand (assuming that the U.S. would not import any soybeans). Ignoring agronomic considerations (i.e., the yield effect on continuous soybean plantings), 192 million acres are theoretically available for soybean production from other major crops (corn, wheat, and alfalfa hay) and minor crops (cotton, sorghum, barley, and rice). Looking out to 2030, corn acres will have to be the primary source of new soybean acres, especially if electric vehicle adoption eventually reduces the need for cornbased ethanol. The below chart shows the potential new acreage mix after the planned RD capacity is fully built out. This would provide an elegant solution to the expected shifts in ethanol and renewable diesel consumption.
Conclusion
The outlook for biofuels is favorable as the United States and other leading developed countries embrace renewable liquid transportation fuels as a green solution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The momentum is supported by renewed government support, as evidenced by passage of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, deep commitments by the major oil companies and others in private industry to decarbonize, and a growing recognition that biofuels provide energy diversity and security.
Ethanol will continue to dominate biofuel for private automobiles, with incremental demand stemming from higher blending rates. While electric vehicle adoption will result in lower ethanol usage over time – all else being equal – escalating lithium battery prices due to component shortages may slow EV production, short-term.
Renewable diesel offers the most exciting growth opportunity in the biofuels space with proposed total capacity rising from ~ 1.0 billion gallons of annual production in 2021 to 6.5 billion gallons by 2030 (equating to about 15% of the petroleum diesel market today). As illustrated in this report, our analysis indicates that getting there will require producing 927 million more bushels of soybeans on 17.9 million additional soybean acres.
The alternative to such a massive acreage shift (beyond importing soybeans) would include growing other types of oilseeds (such as canola and sunflower) at a larger scale, importing other vegetable oils, and/or using other feedstocks such as tallow (an animal protein feedstock with low carbon intensity) to produce renewable diesel fuel.
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